VGK beat SEA 6–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Olofsson scored at 13:02 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Joey Daccord allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:02 | VGK | Victor Olofsson from Rasmus Andersson, Tomas Hertl | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 15:58 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Mark Stone, Jack Eichel | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:43 | VGK | Mark StoneSH from Jack Eichel | 3–0 | 80% → 93% |
| P2 13:07 | VGK | Victor Olofsson from Tomas Hertl, Trevor Connelly | 4–0 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 19:29 | VGK | Jack Eichel unassisted | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 4:52 |  SEA | Shane Wright from Kaapo Kakko, Cale Fleury | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 9:43 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:00 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Jordan Eberle, Kaapo Kakko | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:04 | 2 | 2 | +1.02 | +0.07 | +0.71 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Victor Olofsson R | 10:48 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.07 | +0.75 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Stone R | 15:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.48 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 18:20 | 1 | 3 | +0.48 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:30 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 18:44 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:37 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Connelly L | 11:41 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:05 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 17:24 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Braeden Bowman R | 15:06 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:00 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 16:32 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 13:50 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:09 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 15:51 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +1.22 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Wright C | 14:43 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:57 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 3:57 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 24:16 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:46 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:55 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 24:01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 16:03 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:07 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:21 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 15:35 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 12:33 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:38 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 20:05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 16:51 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:31 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 13:51 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 10:48 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 20:00 | −0.00 |
| Joey Daccord G | 39:53 | −1.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.