BUF beat MIN 3–2 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Owen Power scored at 4:22 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:53 |  MIN | Danila YurovPP from Jared Spurgeon, Blake Coleman | 1–0 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 15:38 | MIN | Maksim Shabanov from Quinn Hughes, Michael McCarron | 2–0 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 3:55 |  BUF | Noah Ostlund from Owen Power, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–1 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 9:38 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Peyton Krebs | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 4:22 | BUF | Owen Power from Jiri Kulich, Tage Thompson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov R | 14:21 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.34 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 17:30 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.33 | +0.30 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:44 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 3:29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:16 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:26 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 13:34 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 14:08 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 19:18 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:25 | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:40 | −0.35 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:04 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:58 | −0.42 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 23:24 | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 29:30 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.49 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 19:18 | −0.64 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 64:22 | +1.89 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power D | 29:04 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.78 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:41 | +0.53 | +0.45 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.60 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jiri Kulich C | 13:56 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.30 | −0.16 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 20:39 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Norris C | 16:44 | +0.30 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:21 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 10:44 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 14:19 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 8:17 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:28 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:15 | +0.02 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 12:05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Konsta Helenius C | 13:01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 14:52 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:15 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 20:41 | −0.10 | +0.42 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 21:45 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 64:22 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.