NYR beat NYI 5–2. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Oliver Bjorkstrand scored on the power play at 17:07 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 53% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:40 | NYR | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Alexis Lafrenière, Sean Durzi | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:25 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Mika Zibanejad, Vladislav Gavrikov | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 2:56 |  NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Matias Maccelli, Brayden Schenn | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:52 | NYI | Calum Ritchie from Brayden Schenn | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:07 | NYR | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 18:22 | NYR | Alexis LafrenièreEN from J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 18:54 | NYR | Alexis LafrenièreEN from Adam Fox, Vladislav Gavrikov | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 17:49 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.23 | +0.26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 14:27 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 18:12 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:32 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:16 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:26 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:57 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 19:21 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 13:20 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 25:03 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 14:32 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:37 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 16:32 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 16:40 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:50 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:11 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:56 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Eklund R | 15:01 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:26 | −0.93 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 8:58 | 2 | +1.05 | +0.12 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:54 | 3 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.16 | +0.44 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:10 | 2 | +0.47 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 13:45 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:49 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:05 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.17 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 17:39 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:25 | +0.06 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 17:34 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alberts Smits D | 15:27 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:47 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 8:28 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 14:47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 17:44 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.34 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:57 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Beaudoin C | 9:57 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.15 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 15:11 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.