UTA beat NJD 5–3. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz scored on the power play at 12:05 of the second, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 69%. Jake Allen allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:57 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 12:23 |  NJD | Luke EvangelistaPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–1 | 40% → 54% |
| P2 1:42 | UTA | MacKenzie Weegar from Anders Lee, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 6:31 | NJD | Luke Evangelista from Timo Meier | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:05 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 19:03 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 9:49 | NJD | Jesper Boqvist from Dougie Hamilton, Declan Chisholm | 4–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 16:52 | UTA | Vincent Trocheck from Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller | 5–3 | 90% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.50 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 14:44 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.14 | +0.36 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 15:04 | 3 | +0.39 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.12 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Marino D | 19:13 | +0.29 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:12 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 10:49 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:31 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 18:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 10:56 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:44 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:31 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.42 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:27 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:17 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.13 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.56 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 10:50 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 18:22 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 59:46 | +0.31 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:18 | 2 | +0.92 | −0.00 | +0.79 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 9:49 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 23:08 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 15:06 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 18:14 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:44 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:57 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 12:23 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:59 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 11:48 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 14:53 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:50 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 26:13 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Amadeus Lombardi C | 10:12 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 11:04 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 12:28 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:32 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.37 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 11:51 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 57:29 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.