CAR beat MTL 6–4. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Jankowski scored at 13:24 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Jakub Dobes allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:25 |  CAR | Taylor Hall from Jackson Blake | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:23 |  MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Phillip Danault, Alexandre Texier | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 4:27 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Chris Kreider, Lane Hutson | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:22 | CAR | Eric Robinson from Jalen Chatfield, Mark Jankowski | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:54 | MTL | Zachary BolducPP from Alex Newhook, Alexandre Texier | 2–3 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 3:56 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 13:24 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Eric Robinson | 4–3 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 12:21 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho | 5–3 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 16:57 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Chris Kreider, Nick Suzuki | 5–4 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 18:45 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovEN from Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.15 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Eric Robinson L | 8:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.37 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.19 | +0.33 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:07 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.05 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:17 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.30 | −0.07 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.29 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:09 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 10:22 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:53 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:08 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:10 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:49 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 6:53 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:42 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:45 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 20:20 | −0.15 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:55 | −0.27 | +0.29 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | −0.76 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:07 | 2 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 29:21 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:11 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:50 | 2 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 24:17 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:43 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.35 | +0.57 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:38 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.41 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Chris Kreider L | 14:30 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 9:38 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:19 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:30 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Florian Xhekaj L | 8:48 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:05 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 21:45 | −0.35 | −0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:12 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:32 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 13:50 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.70 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 57:13 | −1.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.