WPG beat PIT 3–2. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Perfetti scored at 9:02 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 79%. Sergei Murashov allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:27 | PIT | Ben Kindel from Declan Carlile, Erik Karlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 4:43 |  WPG | Alex Iafallo unassisted | 1–1 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 7:08 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Alex Iafallo, Dylan DeMelo | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 8:53 | PIT | Declan Carlile from Ben Kindel, Ville Koivunen | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 9:02 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Josh Morrissey | 3–2 | 48% → 79% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Iafallo L | 10:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.17 | +0.39 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:49 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:24 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 12:05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 14:10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 16:53 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.24 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 21:03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 15:55 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 8:29 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:50 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:04 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 12:43 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:04 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:18 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 14:21 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:59 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viggo Björck C | 13:30 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson G | 60:00 | +1.22 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel C | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.12 | +0.31 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Declan Carlile D | 18:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.33 | +0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 13:22 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 12:17 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 13:30 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 17:12 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 10:58 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 15:14 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:40 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:46 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:23 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:00 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:12 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:12 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:37 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:27 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:47 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov G | 57:23 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.