VGK beat VAN 3–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marc Gatcomb scored at 18:28 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 72%. Kevin Lankinen saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:52 |  VAN | Paul CotterPP from Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 9:01 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Brayden McNabb | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:30 | VGK | Victor OlofssonPP from Mark Stone, Jack Eichel | 2–1 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 17:54 | VAN | Jonathan Lekkerimäki from Linus Karlsson, Luke Schenn | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 18:28 | VGK | Marc Gatcomb from Braeden Bowman, Nic Dowd | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 21:56 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.31 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 11:11 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.13 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:35 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.43 | +0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:07 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.09 | +0.37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:22 | +0.36 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:03 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 10:41 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 17:25 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 17:16 | +0.15 | +0.26 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 17:12 | +0.13 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:37 | +0.13 | +0.27 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:20 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:11 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Connelly L | 12:23 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:45 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:29 | −0.26 | +0.28 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −0.75 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 10:31 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.43 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 14:04 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:29 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 17:04 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 26:25 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 18:46 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.53 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 18:30 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 20:07 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 13:07 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 7:35 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 9:56 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 16:24 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:30 | −0.43 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 14:56 | −0.45 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:18 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 21:02 | −0.57 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:47 | −0.59 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 57:29 | +1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.