SEA beat CGY 6–1. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Berkly Catton scored at 2:22 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Dustin Wolf allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:22 |  SEA | Berkly Catton unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:40 | SEA | Mackie Samoskevich from Brandon Montour, Ryker Evans | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 7:40 | SEA | Bobby McMann from Chandler Stephenson | 0–3 | 83% → 90% |
| P2 11:58 | SEA | Shane Wright from Berkly Catton, Vince Dunn | 0–4 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 19:34 | SEA | Mackie Samoskevich from Matty Beniers, Jared McCann | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:25 |  CGY | Morgan FrostPP from Matvei Gridin, Joel Farabee | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:04 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 17:51 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.08 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matvei Gridin R | 14:26 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 20:59 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:23 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 22:02 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 13:30 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 15:29 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:47 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:59 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 19:32 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 12:19 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 21:14 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:22 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:47 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:56 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 16:51 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 11:17 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:16 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −2.15 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkly Catton C | 12:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 18:49 | 2 | +0.49 | −0.08 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 14:47 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 14:03 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.42 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 15:46 | 2 | +0.41 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 15:27 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:12 | 2 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:15 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:42 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 18:34 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:44 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:50 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ville Ottavainen D | 15:51 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 7:46 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:37 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 15:39 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | +1.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.