ANA beat FLA 3–2 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikael Granlund scored on the power play at 4:14 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Lukas Dostal saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:18 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 17:09 |  FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:47 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 18:10 | FLA | Brad MarchandPP from Lars Eller | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 4:14 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 13:10 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 17:33 | +0.42 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.05 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:30 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:18 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.28 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 14:40 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:47 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 23:28 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 21:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.25 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:12 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 7:45 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:49 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:17 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 13:38 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:02 | −0.27 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:25 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:32 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 28:35 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:19 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.34 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 63:43 | −0.78 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 20:50 | 2 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.09 | +0.73 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:31 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.12 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:26 | 3 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 21:44 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.11 | −0.29 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 10:24 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Colangelo R | 10:24 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 7:56 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:55 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Judd Caulfield R | 9:49 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 28:41 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:32 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 14:44 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 16:24 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Warren D | 15:57 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 19:50 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Mitchell D | 14:08 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tristan Luneau D | 26:36 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 15:02 | −0.81 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 63:43 | +3.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.