NYR beat UTA 4–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabe Perreault scored at 3:15 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Igor Shesterkin saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:18 |  NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Adam Fox | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 14:29 |  UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Clayton Keller | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 3:15 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Alexis Lafrenière, Mika Zibanejad | 1–2 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 12:47 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Vladislav Gavrikov, Tye Kartye | 1–3 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 14:57 | UTA | Andrew Peeke from Anders Lee | 2–3 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 18:45 | NYR | Eeli TolvanenEN from Will Cuylle, Igor Shesterkin | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:45 | +0.25 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 14:04 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 18:28 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 18:03 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 12:59 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| John Marino D | 21:07 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:14 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:39 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:58 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:18 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Daniil But L | 10:26 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:10 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 12:45 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:00 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:43 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:20 | −0.30 | +0.12 | −0.33 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:51 | −0.32 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 58:40 | −0.30 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.08 | +0.40 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gabe Perreault R | 18:18 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 20:27 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.08 | +0.36 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 21:44 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.38 | +0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 24:32 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:57 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 6:05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 2:13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:42 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 7:49 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alberts Smits D | 16:12 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 15:18 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.16 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:15 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 22:57 | −0.48 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:38 | −0.55 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 17:37 | −0.57 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 14:06 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:58 | +3.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.