WPG beat DET 3–2. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Perfetti scored on the power play at 13:04 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 65%. Stuart Skinner saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:04 |  WPG | Cole PerfettiPP from Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 14:36 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 5:41 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 16:52 |  DET | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Andrew Copp, Moritz Seider | 3–1 | 3% → 12% |
| P3 4:56 | DET | Emmitt Finnie from Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Alex DeBrincat | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 20:05 | 2 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.30 | +0.50 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Perfetti C | 17:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.42 | +0.07 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:33 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyrel Bauer D | 8:35 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 11:44 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 19:50 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 10:27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:53 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 11:15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:06 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 12:54 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:17 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:17 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Viggo Björck C | 13:21 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 17:46 | −0.42 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:09 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:53 | −0.57 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +2.95 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Finnie C | 16:56 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.32 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 7:15 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 12:37 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 17:23 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 15:37 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:16 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.24 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Danielson C | 8:09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 9:23 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 23:44 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Anton Johansson D | 13:30 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 21:24 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 25:41 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 19:33 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.20 | −0.54 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 19:32 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 12:51 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 23:55 | −0.51 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 57:11 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.