SJS beat LAK 5–4 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Igor Chernyshov scored at 3:18 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Anton Forsberg allowed 4.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:50 | LAK | Adrian KempePP from Artemi Panarin, Brandt Clarke | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:48 |  SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Ivar Stenberg, Macklin Celebrini | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 9:52 | SJS | Kiefer Sherwood unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:32 | SJS | Nolan Allan from Michael Misa, Igor Chernyshov | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:58 | LAK | Quinton ByfieldPP from Mats Zuccarello, Adrian Kempe | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 4:08 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Tyler Toffoli, Jacob Trouba | 2–4 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 10:21 | LAK | Erik Haula from Erik Gustafsson, Brandt Clarke | 3–4 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 15:00 | LAK | Artemi Panarin from Quinton Byfield | 4–4 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 3:18 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Macklin Celebrini | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:21 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 |
| Quinton Byfield R | 22:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.35 | +0.11 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Adrian Kempe R | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.21 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drew Doughty D | 20:12 | +0.33 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:45 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 17:15 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 14:56 | +0.23 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 20:44 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 13:30 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 9:57 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 16:07 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:27 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 13:17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 17:38 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 16:25 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 15:47 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 16:45 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 62:52 | −4.38 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Chernyshov L | 16:23 | 2 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.23 | +0.83 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.18 | +0.37 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Misa C | 14:14 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 11:49 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivar Stenberg L | 15:37 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:42 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Allan D | 16:00 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.42 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 21:15 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Cagnoni D | 21:21 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:43 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:55 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:14 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:51 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:23 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 18:41 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:12 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:43 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 63:18 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.