COL beat STL 6–1. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 4:09 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:09 |  COL | Cale Makar from Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:12 | COL | Martin Necas from Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 5:38 | COL | Josh Manson from Nicolas Roy, Parker Kelly | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 11:40 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen unassisted | 0–4 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 18:02 | COL | Nicolas Roy from Parker Kelly, Josh Manson | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P2 18:25 | COL | Martin Necas from Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 2:34 |  STL | Dalibor Dvorsky from Theo Lindstein | 1–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Lindstein D | 14:26 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 15:19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:36 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 12:17 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 23:24 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Jiricek D | 19:43 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 20:16 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 14:51 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:43 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:57 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 15:35 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:30 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 20:45 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:43 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:16 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 14:48 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Dean C | 12:37 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −0.87 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 19:21 | 2 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.05 | +0.65 | +0.23 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Josh Manson D | 16:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.12 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.07 | +0.25 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 20:04 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.06 | +0.32 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.04 | +0.28 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Sam Malinski D | 15:37 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 15:31 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Hughes R | 19:56 | +0.21 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:16 | 3 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 14:35 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 18:55 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 10:55 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:48 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 15:05 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 16:11 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:27 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 13:10 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 14:14 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.