NSH beat DAL 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.4, NSH 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nils Hoglander scored on the power play at 15:49 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Juuse Saros saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:47 |  DAL | Miro Heiskanen from Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:46 |  NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 15:49 | NSH | Nils HoglanderPP from Jack Ahcan, Alexander Kerfoot | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:35 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 9:38 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 15:12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:55 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Steel C | 16:09 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 12:29 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 10:28 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 14:27 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 7:29 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:12 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:30 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 19:01 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 19:11 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 12:34 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 25:57 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:03 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 22:50 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 18:50 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 58:24 | +0.66 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ahcan D | 5:49 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:37 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Roman Josi D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:02 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:40 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 18:05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:33 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Trudeau D | 12:15 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:00 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:38 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 15:19 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:05 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:39 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:22 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 16:06 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 13:59 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:57 | +2.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.