TBL beat WSH 3–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Charle-Edouard D'Astous scored at 2:26 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:26 |  TBL | Charle-Edouard D'Astous from Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:30 | TBL | Conor Geekie from Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 7:04 |  WSH | Justin Sourdif from Jakob Chychrun, Boone Jenner | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P3 17:55 | TBL | Jake GuentzelEN from Nikita Kucherov, John Carlson | 1–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif C | 12:24 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 27:11 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 13:34 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Protas L | 9:55 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:45 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 11:37 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 14:10 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 14:57 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Roy D | 14:22 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 15:25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 21:03 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:21 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:34 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:49 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 18:02 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:11 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:53 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 57:36 | +0.58 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Geekie C | 9:10 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 13:47 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 19:23 | +0.26 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:57 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:07 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 20:35 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:46 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.22 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 15:25 | +0.05 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 7:34 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:27 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 13:34 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 10:30 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 15:47 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:34 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:42 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 15:52 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:32 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.