OTT beat TOR 3–2. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Stephen Halliday scored at 9:46 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 80%. Linus Ullmark saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:51 |  OTT | Thomas Chabot from Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 0:33 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly, William Nylander | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:06 | TOR | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Darren Raddysh, John Tavares | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 12:40 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 9:46 | OTT | Stephen Halliday from Fabian Zetterlund, Claude Giroux | 3–2 | 50% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.39 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Michael Amadio R | 19:13 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Stephen Halliday C | 10:07 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.18 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:06 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:17 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.08 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:02 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 22:51 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 17:50 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 18:48 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.29 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 22:30 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 4:29 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 5:10 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:01 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:17 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:21 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 16:16 | −0.26 | +0.36 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 21:43 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +1.93 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 22:46 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:08 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 21:25 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:26 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.36 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:50 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 12:07 | −0.10 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 18:10 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 17:28 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 17:45 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 7:22 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gavin McKenna L | 12:46 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 10:24 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:51 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:03 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:03 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:24 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:49 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:50 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.