NSH beat LAK 5–4 in a shootout. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joel Armia scored at 9:57 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 20% to 52%. Juuse Saros saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:52 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:47 | NSH | Zachary L'Heureux from Brady Skjei | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 2:02 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Matthew Wood, Justin Barron | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 6:09 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Artemi Panarin | 3–1 | 6% → 17% |
| P2 8:19 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 4–1 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 13:29 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Joel Edmundson, Anze Kopitar | 4–2 | 4% → 14% |
| P2 15:45 | LAK | Scott Laughton from Joel Armia, Mikey Anderson | 4–3 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 9:57 | LAK | Joel Armia from Jared Wright, Brian Dumoulin | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 10:50 | +0.77 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.15 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 19:02 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 15:00 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:54 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:30 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 8:05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Joakim Kemell R | 8:12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:36 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.11 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Justin Barron D | 15:18 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:49 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.32 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:34 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.45 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:59 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:12 | 1 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:39 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.20 | −0.56 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:31 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.49 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 14:29 | −0.86 | +0.03 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 67:29 | +3.01 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.25 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 17:32 | +0.20 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 6:13 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.26 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:33 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Wright R | 11:50 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.11 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 20:26 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.67 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 26:11 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 7:13 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 6:47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:47 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 22:07 | −0.53 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:34 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.49 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 19:40 | −0.57 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:53 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 19:12 | −0.75 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 24:08 | −0.90 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 67:44 | +2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.