MTL beat TBL 4–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 12:49 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Jakub Dobes saved 4.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:25 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield | 1–0 | 52% → 65% |
| P1 13:41 |  TBL | Jake Guentzel from Zemgus Girgensons, Ryan McDonagh | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 12:49 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 17:54 | MTL | Mike MathesonEN unassisted | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:54 | MTL | Nick SuzukiEN unassisted | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.06 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.38 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 26:11 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:37 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 8:18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:57 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:43 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:03 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 14:43 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:43 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.20 | −0.12 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 13:48 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:28 | 1 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Anderson R | 12:31 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:45 | −0.37 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:30 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:14 | −0.44 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 14:45 | −0.54 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +4.81 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:33 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:15 | +0.24 | +0.15 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:06 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.10 | +0.30 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:43 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 15:58 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:19 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 15:49 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:50 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 17:55 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:17 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 10:47 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:35 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 17:23 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:21 | −0.27 | +0.25 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:10 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:32 | −0.39 | +0.13 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:40 | +0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.