SJS beat STL 5–4. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Gaudette scored at 19:38 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 |  STL | Theo Lindstein from Jake Neighbours | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:30 | SJS | Alexander WennbergPP from Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 13:25 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Dmitry Orlov, Alexander Wennberg | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:39 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jake Neighbours | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:04 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Nick Leddy, Will Smith | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 10:13 | SJS | Alexander WennbergPP from Tyler Toffoli, Will Smith | 2–4 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 19:34 | STL | Philip BrobergPP from Dylan Holloway, Robert Thomas | 3–4 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 12:53 | STL | Cam FowlerPP from Jordan Kyrou, Pius Suter | 4–4 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 19:38 | SJS | Adam Gaudette from Mario Ferraro, Vincent Desharnais | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:22 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Theo Lindstein D | 17:12 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 20:28 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:58 | 2 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:49 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 20:05 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 23:49 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.07 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:52 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:40 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 19:50 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 21:23 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Otto Stenberg C | 12:00 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 14:35 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:38 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 10:43 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 18:19 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 11:56 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 12:44 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:27 | −1.78 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:45 | 2 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.19 | +0.63 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:57 | 2 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:00 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.03 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:44 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:20 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:56 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 19:51 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:32 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:58 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 20:00 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 12:00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:10 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 11:46 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 16:06 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 16:30 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 16:01 | −0.36 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:34 | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | −1.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.