UTA beat LAK 4–3 in overtime. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz scored at 1:46 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:04 |  UTA | Lawson Crouse from John Marino | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 7:40 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Quinton Byfield | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 9:19 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:47 | LAK | Quinton Byfield unassisted | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 16:11 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 16:30 | LAK | Artemi Panarin from Drew Doughty | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 1:46 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Mikhail Sergachev, Kevin Stenlund | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.12 | +0.33 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 |
| Alex Laferriere R | 20:48 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.31 | +0.41 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 20:04 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:08 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:51 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:21 | −0.00 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 20:44 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.25 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:10 | −0.04 | +0.25 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:58 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:17 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 6:30 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 6:51 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 12:59 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Wright R | 13:14 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 13:56 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 24:18 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 8:15 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:53 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 61:46 | −2.16 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 15:59 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.27 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:41 | 2 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.08 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:30 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| John Marino D | 23:17 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:35 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:44 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:11 | 2 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 12:26 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 20:12 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:20 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:29 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:31 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 14:38 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:22 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:22 | −0.35 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:29 | −0.38 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:20 | −0.66 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 61:46 | +0.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.