MTL beat NYI 7–3. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kaiden Guhle scored at 3:17 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:10 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 6:46 | NYI | Emil HeinemanPP from Anders Lee, Tony DeAngelo | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 13:19 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Adam Pelech | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 17:49 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Kaiden Guhle, Oliver Kapanen | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 19:08 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský | 2–3 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 0:45 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 3:17 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Alexandre Carrier, Brendan Gallagher | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 8:08 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 3–5 | 82% → 95% |
| P3 11:20 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Kaiden Guhle | 3–6 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 14:59 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:15 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:09 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.26 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:55 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:42 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 14:11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 10:46 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 14:48 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:19 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:15 | −0.20 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:24 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:37 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:29 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:24 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.28 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:20 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:01 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.33 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 8:11 | −0.02 |
| Ilya Sorokin G | 50:47 | −2.04 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 16:07 | 3 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.27 | +1.11 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:14 | 2 | 2 | +1.33 | +0.29 | +0.67 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:47 | 4 | +0.81 | +0.32 | −0.20 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 16:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.39 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 13:52 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 21:42 | +0.24 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:02 | +0.05 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:51 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:38 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:14 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.26 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:15 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 12:04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:45 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:11 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:30 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:27 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 60:00 | −1.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.