WSH beat CGY 7–3. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored on the power play at 10:52 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 53% to 84%. Devin Cooley allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:46 |  WSH | Hendrix Lapierre from Martin Fehérváry, Declan Chisholm | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:13 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 17:43 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Justin Sourdif, Anthony Beauvillier | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 16:08 | CGY | Matvei Gridin from Olli Maatta, Ryan Strome | 1–3 | 2% → 10% |
| P2 17:39 | CGY | Blake ColemanSH from Mikael Backlund, Yan Kuznetsov | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P2 18:55 | CGY | Yegor SharangovichSH from Joel Farabee | 3–3 | 23% → 47% |
| P3 10:52 | WSH | Connor McMichaelPP unassisted | 3–4 | 53% → 84% |
| P3 11:15 | WSH | Justin Sourdif unassisted | 3–5 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 17:14 | WSH | Ethen FrankEN from Brandon Duhaime, Hendrix Lapierre | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:44 | WSH | Ryan Leonard from Justin Sourdif | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:13 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.06 | +0.49 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matvei Gridin R | 12:46 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:22 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:19 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 17:53 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 18:44 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:06 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 22:38 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 11:21 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:25 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:33 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:39 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 18:08 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 15:43 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 13:30 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:26 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 19:04 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:17 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 59:23 | −1.73 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif C | 17:09 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.13 | +0.30 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Connor McMichael L | 14:53 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.14 | +0.68 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 17:20 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.03 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ryan Leonard R | 14:24 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:10 | +0.26 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 14:18 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 13:59 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:12 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 19:34 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:33 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:20 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:07 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:31 | −0.03 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:04 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:12 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | −0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.