SJS beat WSH 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.5, WSH 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Collin Graf scored at 14:53 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 70%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:58 |  WSH | Dylan StromePP from Alex Ovechkin, Jakob Chychrun | 0–1 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 13:27 | SJS | Zack Ostapchuk from Dmitry Orlov, William Eklund | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 14:53 | SJS | Collin Graf from Pavol Regenda | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 16:13 | SJS | Pavol Regenda from Macklin Celebrini, Collin Graf | 3–1 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 9:11 | WSH | Ryan Leonard from John Carlson, Martin Fehérváry | 3–2 | 5% → 21% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavol Regenda L | 13:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 25:07 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.07 | |
| Collin Graf R | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.32 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:25 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:54 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| William Eklund L | 17:38 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 20:46 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:21 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:04 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:06 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:32 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 15:28 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:43 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:39 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 9:58 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:33 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 13:46 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 17:56 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:00 | +0.19 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Leonard R | 18:35 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.14 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 15:37 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 22:19 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:29 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan McIlrath D | 6:05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 7:28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 15:49 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:35 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 6:30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 9:40 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:51 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:24 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:12 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 21:34 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:21 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 25:45 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 28:19 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 57:01 | −0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.