BUF took this one from NYR, 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.1, NYR 2.9), so it came down to the finishing and the goaltending. The goal that mattered most: Vincent Trocheck scored at 0:51 of the third and moved NYR’s win probability from 10% to 27%. In net, Colten Ellis saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 |  BUF | Josh Doan from Mattias Samuelsson, Jason Zucker | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 6:58 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Bowen Byram, Josh Norris | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 9:34 |  NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Artemi Panarin | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 12:34 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 3–1 | 70% → 85% |
| P3 0:51 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from J.T. Miller, Artemi Panarin | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 14:38 | BUF | Mattias SamuelssonSH from Ryan McLeod | 4–2 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 18:30 | BUF | Ryan McLeodEN unassisted | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.15 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 17:30 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.06 | +0.43 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.17 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Josh Doan R | 16:09 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Benson L | 16:04 | +0.20 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:45 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:41 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:55 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:30 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Zach Metsa D | 15:29 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 16:39 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Owen Power D | 22:15 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:49 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:29 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:01 | −0.31 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 12:59 | −0.35 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:12 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 60:00 | +1.45 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:53 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.30 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 10:08 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 21:19 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:30 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Blidh L | 8:13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:24 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Scott Morrow D | 16:51 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 9:43 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:08 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:34 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 14:12 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:37 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 15:11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:38 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:30 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 18:21 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 67:38 | −1.19 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.