ANA beat CBJ 4–3. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pavel Mintyukov scored at 16:31 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:14 |  ANA | Mikael Granlund from Olen Zellweger, Frank Vatrano | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:00 | ANA | Jacob Trouba from Ryan Poehling, Alex Killorn | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 5:54 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski | 1–2 | 18% → 31% |
| P2 3:39 | CBJ | Mason Marchment from Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 13:36 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Ross Johnston | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 12:44 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Denton Mateychuk, Kent Johnson | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 16:31 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Mikael Granlund, Radko Gudas | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:38 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:38 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 23:24 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 27:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.33 | +0.33 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Damon Severson D | 19:22 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 15:41 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 7:56 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 8:51 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:13 | −0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 10:07 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 10:30 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 19:41 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 7:21 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:36 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:18 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 17:11 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 22:32 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:25 | −2.13 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.24 | +0.14 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.16 | +0.44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:18 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.07 | +0.39 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 13:25 | +0.25 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 11:53 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 11:58 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:21 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 13:48 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 13:20 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 13:06 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:47 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:04 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:03 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:16 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:04 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:15 | −0.70 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.