WSH took this one from TOR, 4–0. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.5. The better chances went the right way, which is how the model likes it. The biggest swing: Aliaksei Protas scored at 13:53 of the first, taking WSH’s win probability from 53% to 71%. In net, Logan Thompson saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:53 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Justin Sourdif, John Carlson | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:16 | WSH | Jakob Chychrun from Ethen Frank, Connor McMichael | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P3 4:02 | WSH | Jakob Chychrun from John Carlson, Nic Dowd | 0–3 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 8:57 | WSH | John Carlson from Justin Sourdif, Tom Wilson | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:30 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 20:01 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 16:18 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 19:48 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 16:19 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:40 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:51 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:07 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 15:27 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:31 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:35 | −0.21 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:45 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:50 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:56 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:29 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:18 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 15:21 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 13:14 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 60:00 | −0.75 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 21:52 | 1 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.11 | +0.43 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:11 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.83 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 14:04 | 2 | +0.44 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:49 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 12:04 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 11:06 | +0.21 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:05 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:40 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bogdan Trineyev R | 9:18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 12:52 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:28 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:51 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 20:33 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:53 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:30 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 16:53 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 18:58 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:48 | +1.24 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.