OTT took this one from UTA, 4–2. Call it a steal: OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: Jordan Spence scored at 7:13 of the second and moved OTT’s win probability from 53% to 73%. In net, Leevi Meriläinen saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:59 |  OTT | Ridly Greig from Dylan Cozens | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:33 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Mikhail Sergachev, Vitek Vanecek | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 7:13 | OTT | Jordan Spence from David Perron | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 15:52 | OTT | Nick Cousins from Dylan Cozens, Ridly Greig | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 18:56 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Logan Cooley, Nick DeSimone | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 3:46 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Thomas Chabot, Jordan Spence | 2–4 | 79% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:07 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:33 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:43 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 20:50 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| John Marino D | 23:21 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 12:47 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:10 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 18:08 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:22 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:11 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:53 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:49 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:11 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:53 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:21 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 17:33 | −0.50 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 65:51 | −1.36 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:20 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 17:52 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.03 | +0.41 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.04 | +0.30 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ridly Greig C | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| David Perron L | 15:18 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:14 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:00 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 15:53 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:15 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:58 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 9:40 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:44 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 14:34 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:00 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:13 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:59 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:36 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 60:00 | +1.80 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.