ANA beat PIT 4–3. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored on the power play at 18:33 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 95%. Tristan Jarry allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:03 |  PIT | Justin Brazeau from Ryan Shea, Evgeni Malkin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:01 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Ryan Shea, Sidney Crosby | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 9:42 |  ANA | Chris KreiderPP from Leo Carlsson, Mikael Granlund | 2–1 | 24% → 36% |
| P1 19:25 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Pavel Mintyukov, Beckett Sennecke | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 9:48 | ANA | Drew Helleson from Chris Kreider | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:01 | PIT | Anthony Mantha from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 3–3 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 18:33 | ANA | Chris KreiderPP from Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson | 3–4 | 52% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:04 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 14:19 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.13 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 20:13 | 2 | +0.27 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 17:11 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:57 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Filip Hallander C | 10:40 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 10:53 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 20:32 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 13:04 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 15:09 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:43 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:06 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 21:48 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 14:12 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:40 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 21:11 | −0.44 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:01 | −2.69 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 15:13 | 2 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.31 | +0.62 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:06 | +0.41 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:57 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 17:12 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.40 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:23 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 14:58 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.26 | −0.06 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:31 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:57 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:55 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 20:59 | +0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:41 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 9:55 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 11:09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 10:37 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 17:09 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:12 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.