DET beat TOR 6–3. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lucas Raymond scored on the power play at 6:45 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 81%. Anthony Stolarz allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:27 |  TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from Nicolas Roy, Chris Tanev | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 12:29 | TOR | Nicolas Roy from Morgan Rielly, William Nylander | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 8:56 | DET | Marco Kasper from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 14:55 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin, Emmitt Finnie | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:10 | DET | Patrick Kane from Alex DeBrincat, Albert Johansson | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 2:38 | TOR | Max Domi from Morgan Rielly | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 6:45 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 3–4 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 18:12 | DET | Simon EdvinssonEN from Cam Talbot | 3–5 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:55 | DET | Andrew CoppEN unassisted | 3–6 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy C | 10:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.26 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 8:20 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:15 | 2 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 19:38 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 1:17 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:53 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:00 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:58 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:13 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 21:19 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:01 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:22 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 16:35 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 20:35 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:08 | −0.50 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 21:41 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 58:24 | −1.68 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:41 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.06 | +0.77 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 16:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.21 | +0.26 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:47 | 3 | +0.44 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:58 | +0.22 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 13:17 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 16:45 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 10:16 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 11:23 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:48 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 28:03 | +0.03 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 10:17 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:56 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 8:47 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 18:20 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | −0.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.