BUF beat OTT 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tage Thompson scored at 1:23 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 78%. James Reimer saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:35 |  OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:31 |  BUF | Jack Quinn from JJ Peterka, Ryan McLeod | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 7:39 | OTT | David PerronPP from Ridly Greig, Claude Giroux | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 12:59 | BUF | Jacob Bernard-Docker from Tyson Kozak, Peyton Krebs | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:23 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 17:33 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 23:10 | +0.31 | +0.38 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:48 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:25 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:55 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.43 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:19 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:44 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:53 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:44 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.39 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 14:59 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 16:17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 9:11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 8:37 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 7:36 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:09 | −0.25 | +0.11 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 16:27 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:30 | −1.84 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:08 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:23 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:47 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 16:31 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:32 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:33 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 12:41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 8:26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 17:35 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:10 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 17:04 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 20:49 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:49 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 16:42 | −0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:52 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.