VAN took this one from CGY, 4–3 in a shootout. No robbery here: VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 2.0, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Elias Pettersson scored at 13:16 of the third and moved VAN’s win probability from 14% to 49%. In net, Dustin Wolf saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:33 | VAN | Pius Suter from Marcus Pettersson, Filip Hronek | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:53 |  CGY | Nazem Kadri from Rasmus Andersson, Kevin Bahl | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 10:32 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 13:58 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauSH from Kevin Rooney, MacKenzie Weegar | 2–2 | 29% → 52% |
| P2 16:01 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 13:16 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Nils Hoglander, Victor Mancini | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:57 | 1 | 1 | +1.43 | +0.61 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.66 |
| Conor Garland R | 19:34 | +1.23 | +0.54 | −0.21 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:43 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.95 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.11 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 29:48 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mancini D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 28:07 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:14 | +0.21 | +0.36 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 4:06 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 13:28 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.36 | −0.25 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 16:17 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 14:46 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:35 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:42 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:02 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:01 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:37 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.08 | +0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.49 | |
| Nils Aman C | 9:52 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 65:00 | −0.55 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 26:02 | 2 | +0.98 | −0.62 | +1.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 16:52 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:55 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 23:48 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 |
| Jake Bean D | 12:54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 2:58 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 19:13 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 6:36 | −0.17 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 27:10 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 10:08 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 20:40 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:57 | −0.35 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Zary C | 12:57 | −0.46 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:23 | −0.54 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.32 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:43 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.29 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:46 | −1.60 | −1.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 65:00 | +1.17 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.