EDM took this one from CAR, 3–1. Call it a steal: EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: Corey Perry scored at 16:29 of the second and moved EDM’s win probability from 71% to 87%. Calvin Pickard stood on his head: 5.9 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:08 |  EDM | Adam HenriqueSH from Mattias Janmark | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P2 16:29 | EDM | Corey Perry from Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak | 2–0 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 4:26 |  CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Mikko Rantanen, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–1 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 19:59 | EDM | Evan BouchardEN from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 3–1 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 12:25 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.29 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 8:04 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:03 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 10:57 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:07 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 10:11 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 11:13 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 9:55 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 25:45 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 18:08 | −0.29 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 12:18 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:46 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 17:59 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:07 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 21:54 | −0.56 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:45 | −0.73 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:42 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.41 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 60:00 | +5.92 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:24 | +0.30 | +0.42 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:54 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.35 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 10:48 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:15 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:11 | +0.08 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 22:15 | +0.08 | +0.29 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 14:51 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:44 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:23 | +0.02 | +0.38 | −0.44 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:49 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 6:40 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 9:51 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:06 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:19 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:32 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:43 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:26 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 16:52 | −0.46 | −0.54 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 58:24 | +1.42 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.