MTL beat VAN 5–4 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored on the power play at 0:48 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 3.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:07 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:47 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Nils Hoglander, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:21 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Tyler Myers | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:41 | VAN | Jonathan Lekkerimäki from Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 10:35 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Alexandre Carrier, Joel Armia | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 2:01 | MTL | Kirby DachPP from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 6:54 | MTL | Lane Hutson unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 8:51 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| OT 0:48 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield | 4–5 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 18:37 | 2 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.10 | +0.72 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 13:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.14 | +0.29 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:00 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 19:05 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:15 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:01 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 15:08 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:05 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 18:51 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:33 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:46 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:21 | −0.20 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 17:41 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 10:33 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:47 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:08 | −0.52 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 18:07 | −0.72 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:41 | −3.76 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 25:19 | 1 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.52 | +0.39 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:03 | 1 | 2 | +0.98 | +0.24 | +0.42 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 |
| Kirby Dach C | 15:43 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.35 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 20:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.26 | +0.32 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:38 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:16 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.45 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:00 | +0.26 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:51 | +0.19 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 13:59 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:16 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:57 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:36 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 3:58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:51 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 17:24 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 13:23 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 13:53 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 13:32 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:37 | −2.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.