LAK beat NJD 3–0. On shot quality it was a coin flip (NJD 3.0, LAK 2.9 in expected goals); the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andre Lee scored at 6:23 of the second, taking LAK’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Darcy Kuemper stood on his head: 3.3 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:23 |  LAK | Andre Lee from Jordan Spence, Jacob Moverare | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 11:01 | LAK | Quinton Byfield from Phillip Danault, Mikey Anderson | 0–2 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 15:35 | LAK | Adrian KempeEN from Warren Foegele, Mikey Anderson | 0–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes D | 20:14 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:32 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:57 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:39 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 16:36 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:16 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:52 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 18:00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:41 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:04 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:10 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 22:08 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 11:45 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 9:06 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 22:36 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:54 | −0.53 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 57:11 | +0.44 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:44 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Andre Lee L | 6:29 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 14:33 | +0.25 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 14:56 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 16:51 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 24:44 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Moverare D | 7:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 3:54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:59 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 25:52 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:52 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:00 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 5:25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 21:28 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 18:02 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 13:46 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:20 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:57 | +3.33 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.