WPG beat SJS 4–3. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Lowry scored at 18:47 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:18 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:52 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Nikolai Kovalenko, Macklin Celebrini | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:28 | WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 17:11 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Jake Walman, Tyler Toffoli | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 4:44 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Jake Walman | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 11:56 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 18:47 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Dylan DeMelo, Mason Appleton | 4–3 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.34 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Kyle Connor L | 18:50 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.37 | +0.47 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.10 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:31 | 3 | +0.40 | +0.34 | −0.21 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 15:57 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:01 | +0.38 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.20 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:08 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 10:42 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 22:33 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:35 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Chibrikov R | 8:50 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:49 | −0.15 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:04 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 9:03 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:06 | −0.21 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:23 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.86 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.04 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.21 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jake Walman D | 22:49 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:21 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 13:05 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:11 | −0.02 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:06 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 16:18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 15:22 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:37 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 16:08 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:20 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:52 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:42 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 17:49 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:00 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 16:11 | −0.31 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:45 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:13 | −1.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.