NJD beat SEA 3–2. No robbery here: NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.2, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Timo Meier scored at 0:53 of the third and moved NJD’s win probability from 52% to 77%. In net, Philipp Grubauer saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:16 |  SEA | Andre Burakovsky from Vince Dunn | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 12:27 | NJD | Luke Hughes from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 3:41 | SEA | Shane WrightPP from Eeli Tolvanen, Jaden Schwartz | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 8:03 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jack Hughes, Brenden Dillon | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 0:53 | NJD | Timo Meier unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:09 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 9:53 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:18 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:47 | −0.11 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:18 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 25:15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 9:26 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:54 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 15:21 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 16:55 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 8:52 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:04 | −0.34 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 22:02 | −0.34 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 18:34 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 57:54 | +1.26 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 19:50 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.41 | −0.17 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.07 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.38 | +0.44 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:27 | +0.33 | +0.44 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:36 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 14:58 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.39 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:32 | +0.07 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:41 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Nathan Légaré R | 10:18 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 12:18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 14:31 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 21:20 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:40 | −0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:32 | −0.23 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:57 | −0.29 | +0.33 | −0.59 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:37 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.16 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.