DAL took this one from COL, 5–3. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.6 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The goal that mattered most: Mason Marchment scored at 14:28 of the first and moved DAL’s win probability from 53% to 71%. In net, Jake Oettinger saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:36 | DAL | Tyler SeguinPP from Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 13:56 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:28 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 7:07 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Miro Heiskanen, Sam Steel | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 18:42 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 1:02 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard | 2–4 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 8:03 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Cale Makar | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 17:17 | DAL | Mason MarchmentEN unassisted | 3–5 | 92% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.24 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 30:00 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.55 | −0.19 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:42 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.29 | +0.24 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 21:55 | +0.24 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 26:02 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.37 | −0.33 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 7:13 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 5:31 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 21:03 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 15:43 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chase Bradley L | 4:07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:20 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:34 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:43 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:42 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:34 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 13:15 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 9:40 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:41 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 57:12 | −1.38 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:32 | 2 | +0.59 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 14:00 | 2 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.13 | +0.30 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:42 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.33 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Sam Steel C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 7:17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:21 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.30 | +0.31 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 23:16 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 8:31 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:06 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:37 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 27:15 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 9:17 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 15:12 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 20:22 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | +2.00 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.