ARI beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Cooley scored at 3:51 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Arturs Silovs allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:46 | ARI | Joshua Brown from Dylan Guenther, Vladislav Kolyachonok | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 18:32 |  VAN | J.T. Miller from Tyler Myers, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P2 19:28 | ARI | Vladislav Kolyachonok from Lawson Crouse, Dylan Guenther | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 1:55 | ARI | Dylan Guenther from Logan Cooley | 3–1 | 74% → 90% |
| P3 11:18 | VAN | Conor Garland from Nils Hoglander, Quinn Hughes | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 16:18 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Quinn Hughes | 3–3 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 3:51 | ARI | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther, Sean Durzi | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 16:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.19 | +0.47 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 21:29 | 1 | 3 | +0.84 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 11:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joshua Brown D | 15:45 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.10 | +0.43 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:44 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Josh Doan R | 9:53 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 27:43 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Jenik C | 7:38 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:56 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 9:04 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:52 | −0.19 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 17:42 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:22 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:05 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 24:04 | −0.35 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 25:05 | −0.61 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 26:05 | −0.69 | −0.64 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 25:38 | −0.72 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 63:51 | +1.02 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:09 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.25 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 16:58 | +0.51 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 20:30 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.36 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:16 | +0.48 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:35 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:43 | 3 | +0.33 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:34 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:30 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 8:12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:54 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:36 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 11:40 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:20 | −0.06 | +0.53 | −0.46 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 9:15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:20 | −0.08 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:06 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 16:13 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 17:26 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 63:13 | −3.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.