STL took this one from LAK, 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.9, STL 3.1), so it came down to the finishing and the goaltending. The goal that mattered most: Brayden Schenn scored at 1:04 of overtime and moved STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. In net, Joel Hofer saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:06 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Anze Kopitar, Alex Laferriere | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:51 | STL | Nick Leddy from Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 5:39 | LAK | Jaret Anderson-DolanSH from Trevor Lewis, Vladislav Gavrikov | 2–1 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 6:34 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Scott Perunovich, Jordan Kyrou | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:07 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Scott Perunovich, Robert Thomas | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:44 | LAK | Phillip Danault from Trevor Moore, Drew Doughty | 3–3 | 23% → 47% |
| OT 1:04 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Pavel Buchnevich | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.30 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:37 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.25 | +0.35 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:24 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Matt Roy D | 25:12 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 8:37 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 11:31 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:49 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 12:25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 19:52 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 8:37 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:24 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 11:50 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.27 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 13:21 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 15:41 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:57 | −1.17 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 21:05 | 1 | 2 | +0.68 | +0.21 | +0.32 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.04 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.15 | +0.20 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Scott Perunovich D | 16:14 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:24 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.23 | +0.40 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 24:04 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.20 | −0.42 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 8:23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 12:45 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 9:10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 16:17 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:12 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:32 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 19:08 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:24 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 17:02 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:03 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 16:03 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 61:41 | +1.40 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.