OTT took this one from MTL, 6–2. No robbery here: OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.5, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Brady Tkachuk scored at 8:40 of the first and moved OTT’s win probability from 53% to 70%. A tough night in net for Cayden Primeau: he allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:40 |  OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Ridly Greig, Artem Zub | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:07 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Artem Zub, Drake Batherson | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:25 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Sean Monahan | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 9:51 | OTT | Rourke Chartier from Parker Kelly, Jacob Bernard-Docker | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 18:54 | OTT | Vladimir Tarasenko from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 1–4 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 1:41 | OTT | Mathieu Joseph from Tim Stützle | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 12:26 | OTT | Parker KellyEN from Jake Sanderson | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:16 | MTL | Michael Pezzetta unassisted | 2–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pezzetta L | 8:47 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.07 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Stephens C | 11:30 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:17 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.14 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:53 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joshua Roy R | 12:27 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:35 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 16:04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 13:40 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 10:43 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:51 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:30 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 17:41 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:13 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:48 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 15:55 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:41 | −0.26 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:32 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:51 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 59:03 | −1.31 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 17:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.05 | +0.39 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.28 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:10 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 17:57 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 22:09 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rourke Chartier C | 11:38 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.11 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 14:59 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 17:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:04 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:54 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 8:24 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 9:56 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:32 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:12 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 16:33 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:44 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 59:55 | +0.72 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.