ARI beat OTT 4–3. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Michael Kesselring scored at 16:27 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:10 |  OTT | Angus Crookshank from Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:06 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P1 14:19 | OTT | Dominik Kubalik from Erik Brannstrom | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 14:10 |  ARI | Jack McBain from Logan Cooley, Michael Carcone | 3–1 | 4% → 14% |
| P3 9:14 | ARI | J.J. Moser from Matias Maccelli, Mathew Dumba | 3–2 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 9:47 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Troy Stecher, Alexander Kerfoot | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 16:27 | ARI | Michael Kesselring from Zachary Sanford, Jack McBain | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 19:19 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.11 | +0.42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.09 | +0.40 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Angus Crookshank C | 11:45 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:08 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:30 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 19:49 | +0.03 | +0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 13:57 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:14 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:21 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Smejkal L | 7:17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:31 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:54 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 15:22 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:58 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:41 | −0.36 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:23 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 58:20 | −2.29 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McBain C | 8:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.39 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:46 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.15 | +0.37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:50 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.14 | +0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 9:04 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 9:34 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:56 | +0.19 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 18:36 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:47 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:28 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:36 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:34 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:22 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:38 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.03 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 13:12 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 45:41 | +1.36 |
| Connor Ingram G | 14:19 | −1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.