STL beat ARI 6–5. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Hayes scored at 4:13 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Jordan Binnington allowed 4.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:47 |  STL | Brayden Schenn from Jake Neighbours | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:40 |  ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Matias Maccelli | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 12:15 | STL | Colton Parayko from Brandon Saad | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:06 | ARI | Jason Zucker from Michael Carcone | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 0:22 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:40 | STL | Nick LeddySH from Kasperi Kapanen | 3–3 | 27% → 46% |
| P2 4:13 | STL | Alexey ToropchenkoSH from Justin Faulk | 4–3 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 6:56 | ARI | Michael Carcone from Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Boyd | 4–4 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:00 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from J.J. Moser, Clayton Keller | 4–5 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:49 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jordan Kyrou, Scott Perunovich | 5–5 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 4:13 | STL | Kevin Hayes from Brandon Saad | 6–5 | 48% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:01 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.07 | +0.79 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 13:56 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.14 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:14 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.11 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:14 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:51 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.36 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 26:04 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 11:08 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:32 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:24 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:12 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 14:06 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 7:11 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 7:13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 19:44 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:29 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:47 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 32:00 | +1.53 |
| Jordan Binnington G | 28:00 | −4.30 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 11:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.32 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:26 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.29 | −0.12 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 22:47 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:06 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 15:24 | +0.27 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:52 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 24:09 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:21 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:56 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 25:44 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 14:09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:28 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 7:32 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 15:38 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 8:21 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:41 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 15:58 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 34:09 | −0.45 |
| Karel Vejmelka G | 24:08 | −3.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.