CAR beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored at 1:30 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:43 | CAR | Tony DeAngeloPP unassisted | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 3:51 | BUF | Alex Tuch unassisted | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 7:54 | CAR | Brady Skjei from Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov | 1–2 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 9:23 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 1:30 | CAR | Martin Necas from Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:37 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 13:08 | +0.28 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 19:26 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:02 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Lukas Rousek R | 6:40 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:21 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 17:25 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 19:19 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:31 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:49 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 8:20 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:38 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 9:11 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:28 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 21:39 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Owen Power D | 26:17 | −0.36 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 16:18 | −0.55 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 61:24 | −1.21 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 21:44 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.42 | +0.38 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:49 | 2 | +0.88 | +0.13 | −0.10 | +0.64 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Martin Necas C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.04 | +0.46 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:57 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 22:46 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:00 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:53 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 15:17 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.29 | +0.46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:33 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:24 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 10:55 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:57 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 10:09 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:07 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 12:56 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:23 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 10:08 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.44 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 12:56 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 61:06 | +0.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.