SEA beat WPG 3–2. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jared McCann scored at 15:28 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 51% to 89%. David Rittich allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:26 | WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Josh Morrissey, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–0 | 52% → 64% |
| P2 8:43 |  SEA | Jordan Eberle from Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:41 | WPG | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 0:16 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Yanni Gourde, Andre Burakovsky | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 15:28 | SEA | Jared McCann from Matty Beniers, Justin Schultz | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:20 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 14:47 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:08 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 12:15 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 16:33 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 13:56 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 10:42 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 11:53 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:00 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 12:34 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:50 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:54 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:04 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 11:45 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 12:33 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:13 | −0.44 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 59:11 | −1.39 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.11 | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.27 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:32 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.08 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 24:47 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:53 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 19:35 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 13:35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:35 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:48 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:28 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 9:30 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:13 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:33 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:02 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 14:18 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:40 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.