FLA beat OTT 5–3. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Montour scored at 16:28 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:59 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:54 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Matthew Tkachuk | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 0:37 |  OTT | Shane PintoPP from Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 15% → 28% |
| P2 3:23 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Drake Batherson, Nick Holden | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 19:23 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 11:56 | OTT | Nick Holden from Tyler Motte | 3–3 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 16:28 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 19:46 | FLA | Matthew TkachukEN from Anton Lundell | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto C | 12:05 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Holden D | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.09 | +0.46 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Motte C | 13:40 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.35 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:25 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:40 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:39 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:48 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 13:50 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:34 | −0.22 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:16 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 8:30 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:16 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.38 | +0.21 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 17:54 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.30 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 13:22 | −0.47 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 19:29 | −0.50 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 19:12 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 18:35 | −0.61 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 16:58 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.47 | −0.32 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:50 | −0.14 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:08 | 1 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.37 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:07 | 2 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.26 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Montour D | 27:49 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.42 | +0.23 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.46 | −0.36 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Colin White C | 9:56 | +0.36 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 16:47 | +0.10 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 14:59 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Kiersted D | 5:18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:33 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 23:53 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 11:50 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:41 | −0.11 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 11:43 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:38 | −0.19 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 9:25 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:15 | −0.28 | +0.25 | −0.29 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 11:31 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:22 | −0.47 | +0.15 | −0.44 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:53 | +0.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.