TBL beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Steven Stamkos scored on the power play at 0:52 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Antti Raanta allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:59 | CAR | Nino Niederreiter from Jordan Staal, Ian Cole | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:52 | TBL | Alex KillornPP from Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 8:41 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Teuvo Teravainen | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 9:43 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Anthony Cirelli, Steven Stamkos | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:47 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Tony DeAngelo, Seth Jarvis | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 6:02 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 0:52 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 13:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.11 | +0.39 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:08 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.15 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:06 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 12:48 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:05 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:39 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 9:56 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:06 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 7:45 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:07 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 15:09 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:29 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 6:43 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:02 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:36 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:38 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:20 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:18 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 60:49 | −1.38 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:45 | 1 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.31 | +0.32 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:07 | 3 | +0.67 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:45 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.32 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 20:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.23 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Killorn L | 14:27 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.36 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:04 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 10:20 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:54 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 22:21 | +0.03 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:41 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:36 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 12:03 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:30 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 14:18 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 10:35 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:05 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:52 | −0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.