VGK beat FLA 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.5, VGK 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 13:23 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:04 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Eetu Luostarinen, Aaron Ekblad | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:09 |  VGK | Brett Howden from Michael Amadio, Keegan Kolesar | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:38 | VGK | Evgenii Dadonov from Derrick Pouliot | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 14:32 | VGK | Evgenii DadonovPP from Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel | 1–3 | 76% → 90% |
| P2 17:38 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Anthony Duclair, Aaron Ekblad | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 12:26 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov | 3–3 | 16% → 49% |
| P3 13:23 | VGK | Nicolas Roy unassisted | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 18:10 | VGK | William KarlssonEN unassisted | 3–5 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:11 | +0.17 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:32 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:49 | 3 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:04 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 16:36 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.34 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Petteri Lindbohm D | 13:04 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:44 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 17:00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Mamin C | 13:05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 16:10 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 7:02 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 9:35 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 10:23 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:56 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:27 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:58 | −0.55 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 58:43 | −1.59 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:25 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.75 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:20 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.06 | +0.40 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 12:01 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.10 | +0.37 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 25:56 | +0.20 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:32 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:24 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:36 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:29 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 14:22 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 5:48 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 14:21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 11:58 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nolan Patrick C | 13:09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 20:55 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:12 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:53 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.