STL took this one from NSH, 7–4. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.6, NSH 2.9), so it came down to the finishing and the goaltending. The goal that mattered most: Robert Thomas scored at 17:22 of the third and moved STL’s win probability from 49% to 91%. A tough night in net for Juuse Saros: he allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:35 | STL | David PerronPP from Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:23 | STL | Brandon Saad from Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 17:42 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Brandon Saad, Jordan Kyrou | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P1 18:34 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen | 3–1 | 8% → 20% |
| P2 3:44 | NSH | Ryan JohansenPP from Matt Duchene, Roman Josi | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 8:14 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:38 | STL | Torey Krug from Mackenzie MacEachern, Tyler Bozak | 4–3 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 12:17 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Ryan Johansen | 4–4 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 17:22 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jordan Kyrou, Vladimir Tarasenko | 5–4 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 18:03 | STL | David PerronEN from Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly | 6–4 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:27 | STL | Justin FaulkEN from Robert Thomas | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 18:09 | 2 | 2 | +1.12 | −0.12 | +0.83 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Torey Krug D | 21:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.22 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:58 | 3 | +0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.09 | +0.32 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Bozak C | 12:04 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:09 | +0.09 | +0.25 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:47 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:33 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:29 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 9:02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:39 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 10:32 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:00 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:51 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:38 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:00 | +0.06 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 17:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.18 | +0.71 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.16 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.08 |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 26:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 14:13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:55 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:06 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:52 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:07 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:42 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 13:36 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 20:10 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 13:58 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 10:49 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:31 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 17:41 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:40 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:17 | −2.52 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.