EDM beat STL 5–4. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kailer Yamamoto scored at 19:32 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 49% to 97%. Jordan Binnington allowed 4.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:18 |  STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 19:55 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 2:51 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 9:58 | STL | Robert Bortuzzo from Tyler Bozak, David Perron | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:11 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 16:19 | EDM | Ryan McLeod from Warren Foegele, Kyle Turris | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 4:06 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 7:48 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 4–4 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 19:32 | EDM | Kailer Yamamoto from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 5–4 | 49% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.94 | +0.23 | +0.34 | +0.60 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:34 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.43 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 8:57 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.36 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Kris Russell D | 14:15 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.31 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyson Barrie D | 15:55 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Benson L | 4:25 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 22:21 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:25 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.46 | −0.05 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 10:34 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 9:10 | −0.34 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 7:23 | −0.47 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:09 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.61 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 18:16 | −0.50 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:45 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:46 | −0.53 | −0.33 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:42 | 1 | 1 | −0.56 | −1.01 | +0.29 | +0.45 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Duncan Keith D | 20:13 | −0.70 | −0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:00 | +0.44 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:45 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.90 | −0.19 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:24 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.42 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:14 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.41 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:03 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.49 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 26:24 | +0.52 | +0.73 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:28 | +0.42 | +0.71 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:08 | 3 | +0.35 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.06 | |
| Jake Walman D | 10:40 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:53 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| James Neal L | 9:19 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 18:12 | +0.13 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:47 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.45 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 4:49 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 18:22 | −0.05 | +0.44 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 18:15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 6:40 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:32 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −4.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.