TOR beat BUF 5–4. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 2.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Morgan Rielly scored at 19:48 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Aaron Dell allowed 4.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:43 | TOR | David Kampf from Alexander Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 14:42 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Colin Miller, Kyle Okposo | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 7:18 | TOR | Ondrej Kase from John Tavares, Auston Matthews | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 8:28 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Jake Muzzin, Jason Spezza | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 17:33 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 9:22 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 4–2 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 10:47 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson | 4–3 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 11:46 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Arttu Ruotsalainen, Kyle Okposo | 4–4 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 19:48 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Alexander Kerfoot | 5–4 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:27 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.44 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.42 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Kampf C | 15:33 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.14 | +0.39 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| John Tavares C | 17:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Michael Bunting L | 10:03 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.45 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 20:39 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 17:52 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:19 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 8:59 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kirill Semyonov C | 9:52 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:19 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 15:04 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 13:51 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:30 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:41 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:40 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:00 | −2.73 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:59 | 2 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.10 | +0.75 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.09 | +0.33 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.11 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 23:15 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 24:23 | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 11:21 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:20 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:28 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 17:54 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 14:00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 18:41 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 11:45 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:53 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:09 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 10:54 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:40 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 59:48 | −4.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.